Russia is expected to overtake Ukraine as the world leader in sunflower oil exports.
Russia is expected to overtake Ukraine as the world leader in sunflower oil exports.
Ukraine remains the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil until 2022, supplying about half of the world's sunflower oil, most of it to India and EU member states.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict last year severely affected the production of grain and oil crops in Ukraine, which fell by more than 40% and 25% respectively from the same period last year. And due to the closure of the Black Sea last year, exports have also declined, giving Russia a chance to become the largest exporter of sunflower oil.
As we all know, sunflower oil is one of the four main vegetable oils (sunflower oil, palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil) in the world. According to the staff of this website, about 14% of Ukraine’s population is engaged in agricultural production, and sunflower oil trade is an important source of income for the Ukrainian economy.
In 2021, Ukrainian agricultural exports will account for 41% of total exports. Sunflower oil is the most valuable agricultural product exported by Ukraine, with an export value of 6.4 billion US dollars. That compares with $5.9 billion for corn, $5.2 billion for wheat and $1.2 billion for sunflower meal.
Over the past five years, Russian farmers have reduced the acreage of other crops such as barley, oats, rye and millet, and planted more other oilseeds and corn. The total harvested area of major grains and oilseeds in Russia has increased by an average of about 1.5% per year, and the total crop area is expected to reach a record 56.8 million hectares in 2022-23.
Ukrainian refineries have been hit hard by the conflict and exports of sunflower seeds have risen sharply to 2.45 million tonnes in 2022-23, more than 20 times the pre-conflict average. That makes Ukraine by far the largest exporter of the oilseed, accounting for 45 percent of world trade, up from less than 5 percent in the pre-conflict period.
In recent years, Russia has been planting sunflower seeds, corn and other oilseeds. It is estimated that Russia’s sunflower seed production in 2022 will reach 16.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while Ukraine’s production is estimated at 10 million tons, which is lower than the peak production in 2021. 17.5 million tons.
According to the forecasts of our experts, Russia is expected to export more sunflower oil than Ukraine by 2023, accounting for 35% of the trade volume, compared with 34% for Ukraine.
