The quality of new season sunflower varies greatly, who will be the future king?
Currently, the new season of sunflowers continues to be harvested. The annual yield varies with the planting area, weather, and seed quality. The main sunflower producing countries include some European countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Bulgaria. China mainly imports sunflowers from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Bulgaria, and sunflower oil from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Bulgaria. Therefore, the sunflower yield of these countries affects the domestic price of sunflowers and sunflower oil. Let's take a look at the latest news in these countries.
Kazakhstan:
On October 10th, sunflower crops in the Abay, East Kazakhstan, Pavlodar and Kostanay regions of Kazakhstan were in the mature harvest period. Farmers said the overall condition of the sunflowers was good, in some places very good. Harvesting has begun near the Dmitriyevka, Urzhar weather station in the Abay region, and the Novoakhmirova and Samarka weather stations in the East Kazakhstan region. The Kazakhstan Hydrological Bureau pointed out that this year, the spring grain crops in the northern part of the region have been harvested with good agricultural meteorological conditions. Currently, demand for sunflowers in Kazakhstan exceeds supply by more than three times, with little change in sunflower oil prices.
Bulgaria:
Bulgarian analysts stated, "This year's sunflowers in Bulgaria are small, low in oil content, contain many impurities, and have low humidity. They are very worried that the processing industry is facing the most difficult year ever. For oil mills, apart from a small amount of products, the oil content is at least 3 percentage points lower than in previous years, which means even less oil production." Sunflower yield in Bulgaria has dropped to 1.55 tons/hectare, and the expected yield for Romanian farmers is 1.45 tons/hectare. Comparing to the previous year - also impacted by drought - the yield per population has declined by 16.2% in Bulgaria and 32.5% in Romania. Bulgaria has long been seeking imported substitutes, but the efforts have been limited because the sunflower problem is related to all Balkan regions. Also, the quality of corn was problematic this year because the grains contained large amounts of aflatoxins and ochratoxins.
Russia:
Since the beginning of autumn, the price of sunflowers in Russia has indeed soared. Due to the shortage of oil crop, processors are quickly revising sunflower oil production plans. This is not only because of weak harvests, but also because producers are not eager to sell raw materials to processors in hopes of getting the best price themselves.
According to the Regional Economics report of October 2024 by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, sunflower producers' prices increased due to deteriorated crop forecast in Central and Southern Russia along with increased demand by processors. The expected yield of sunflowers, a main oilseed crop, is projected to be significantly lower than last year. Farmers noticed a drop in sunflower seeds' yield and quality characteristics (smaller seeds with less oil content), especially in frostbite and drought-hit areas in central and southern Russia. Operational data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture show that by early October, the national oilseed harvest stood at 23 million tons, up 16.1% year on year. However, it was clarified that the positive annual growth rate was due to early harvests caused by poor crop conditions and unfavorable weather conditions. Overall, experts predict oilseed harvest in 2024 to be 4% to 6% lower than last year but higher than the five-year average. The Central Bank analyst stated: “Sunflower seeds in Russia are not exported due to tariffs, but Russia’s supply of sunflower oil to the world market is increasing. Meanwhile, domestic consumption remains stable. Therefore, over 60% of sunflower oil produced in Russia is used for export. Given the high world prices, it is profitable for processors to sell their products on foreign markets, which is why demand for sunflower seeds has increased.”
Ukraine:
In Ukraine, the price of sunflower seeds surged dramatically once again, reaching a new high since the end of May 2021, with the official procurement price by processors ranging from 22,500-24,500 UAH/t CPT. Ukrainian analysts noted: "The supply of oilseeds has slightly increased, but it is still insufficient. Therefore, those who need to urgently replenish their stocks to fulfill their contractual obligations for sunflower oil have to pay extra for larger volumes and oil content. Currently, the increase in sunflower oil export costs is driving the price of raw materials. However, more and more processors report that their processing profitability is low or virtually non-existent."
